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Friday, November 07, 2008

Polls: Rasmussen, Pew best

Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos did a quick look at poll accuracy.

His analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com. He just compared the overall national numbers -- these don't matter as much as the state-by-state numbers for battleground states, but it's only a few days after the election and most U.S. political scientists are probably still hung over.

Rasmussen and Pew did best. Here's the rank:

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

** = right on the money
* = predicted McCain would do better than he did
no asterisk = predicted Obama would do better than he did

All polls predicted Obama would win the popular vote.