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Monday, May 04, 2009

36,000 ordinary flu deaths each year?

That 36,000 number gets a lot of press these days, but where does it come from?

There's a really nice explanation of it on Effect Measure

Net: there's no straightforward way to do a count, the 36,000 number is just an estimate (based on multiple ways of estimating), and in any event that number varies a lot from year to year. There's more, but I will refer you to the link above.

Interestingly, one of the main methods is Serfling's method. This bears a striking similarity to the measures used to assess the success of sales promotions.