So, here’s a
nightmare scenario in which Trump gets a second term.
It explains why Trump is spending so much energy emphasizing possible election fraud.
Elections, even in the best of times, have a number of ballots that are spoiled,
Adams’ group
said that during the four most recent general elections, about 1.3 million
ballots were rejected upon receipt out of about 146 million ballots, which
works out to about 1 percent.
Federal
data shows that rejected absentee ballots are a small subset. In 2016, about 1% of absentee ballots were rejected, most commonly for missing
or mismatched signatures, or for arriving after the deadline. Signature checks
are one of the ways election officials try to safeguard against absentee voter
fraud, but they can also trip up voters who simply forgot to sign their
ballots, or whose signatures have varied over time. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jun/09/j-christian-adams/misleading-claim-millions-absentee-ballots-end-mis/
One percent’s
not a lot, but remember some states can be close, and it’s not a uniform 1%,
but clustered.
So, (1) the
idea is to create enough doubt – even if that doubt is only in Bill Barr’s head.
Then Barr he heads to the Supreme Court, newly stacked with Trump appointees.
Or, (2) at
the state level, some states may just not certify a winner. The official responsible for this varies by
state; often it’s the Secretary of State, but not always. But a count of
current governors shows 24 Democrats, 26 Republicans, so that’s a reasonable
proxy for the party identification of the person certifying the results. In a
close election, there’s a lot of room for deciding which ballots to accept.
[Recall that in Florida in 2000, if Gore had his rule for vote counting used,
Bush would have won. If Bush had his rule used, Gore would have won. In the
end, the Supreme Court decided 5-4 not to have further counting.] Or, there may
just be no certification in time.
Would
partisanship prevail occasionally over principle? Well, remember even the sainted
President Lincoln was not above trading offices for votes (c.f. the movie “Lincoln”).
Trump is above nothing.
The House Divided
So, what if there’s
enough doubt, or enough lack of certification, so there’s no candidate with the
majority of the electoral votes? We go
to the 12th amendment.
… if no person have
such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding
three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives
shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President.
By “choose
immediately”, this would be the current Congress, not the one elected to take
office in 2021, because the electors meet on the first Monday after the second
Wednesday in December, before the new Congress takes office.
But this isn’t
your ordinary House vote:
But
in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the
representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall
consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of
all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
Using this
rule, and the data from https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_current_members_of_the_U.S._Congress
,
I count 23
states with Democratic majorities in their House delegations, 26 with
Republican majorities, and one tie. (This assumes the Libertarian would caucus
Republican).
|
Row Labels |
Democratic Party |
Libertarian Party |
Republican Party |
Grand Total |
Party |
|
Alabama |
1 |
6 |
7 |
Rep |
|
|
Alaska At-large Distri |
1 |
1 |
Rep |
||
|
Arizona |
5 |
4 |
9 |
Dem |
|
|
Arkansas |
4 |
4 |
Rep |
||
|
California |
45 |
7 |
52 |
Dem |
|
|
Colorado |
4 |
3 |
7 |
Dem |
|
|
Connecticut |
5 |
5 |
Dem |
||
|
Delaware At-large Distri |
1 |
1 |
Dem |
||
|
Florida |
13 |
14 |
27 |
Rep |
|
|
Georgia |
4 |
9 |
13 |
Rep |
|
|
Hawaii |
2 |
2 |
Dem |
||
|
Idaho |
2 |
2 |
Rep |
||
|
Illinois |
13 |
5 |
18 |
Dem |
|
|
Indiana |
2 |
7 |
9 |
Rep |
|
|
Iowa |
3 |
1 |
4 |
Dem |
|
|
Kansas |
1 |
3 |
4 |
Rep |
|
|
Kentucky |
1 |
5 |
6 |
Rep |
|
|
Louisiana |
1 |
5 |
6 |
Rep |
|
|
Maine |
2 |
2 |
Dem |
||
|
Maryland |
7 |
1 |
8 |
Dem |
|
|
Massachusetts |
9 |
9 |
Dem |
||
|
Michigan |
7 |
1 |
6 |
14 |
Tied |
|
Minnesota |
5 |
3 |
8 |
Dem |
|
|
Mississippi |
1 |
3 |
4 |
Rep |
|
|
Missouri |
2 |
6 |
8 |
Rep |
|
|
Montana At-large Distri |
1 |
1 |
Rep |
||
|
Nebraska |
3 |
3 |
Rep |
||
|
Nevada |
3 |
1 |
4 |
Dem |
|
|
New Hampshire |
2 |
2 |
Dem |
||
|
New Jersey |
10 |
2 |
12 |
Dem |
|
|
New Mexico |
3 |
3 |
Dem |
||
|
New York |
21 |
6 |
27 |
Dem |
|
|
North Carolina |
3 |
9 |
12 |
Rep |
|
|
North Dakota At-large
Distri |
1 |
1 |
Rep |
||
|
Ohio |
4 |
12 |
16 |
Rep |
|
|
Oklahoma |
1 |
4 |
5 |
Rep |
|
|
Oregon |
4 |
1 |
5 |
Dem |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
9 |
9 |
18 |
Tied |
|
|
Rhode Island |
2 |
2 |
Dem |
||
|
South Carolina |
2 |
5 |
7 |
Rep |
|
|
South Dakota At-large
Distri |
1 |
1 |
Rep |
||
|
Tennessee |
2 |
7 |
9 |
Rep |
|
|
Texas |
13 |
22 |
35 |
Rep |
|
|
Utah |
1 |
3 |
4 |
Rep |
|
|
Vermont At-large Distri |
1 |
1 |
Dem |
||
|
Virginia |
7 |
4 |
11 |
Dem |
|
|
Washington |
7 |
3 |
10 |
Dem |
|
|
West Virginia |
3 |
3 |
Rep |
||
|
Wisconsin |
3 |
5 |
8 |
Rep |
|
|
Wyoming At-large Distri |
1 |
1 |
Rep |
||
|
Grand Total |
232 |
1 |
198 |
431 |
That’s 431
House members, since 4 seats are currently vacant. (California 50, Georgia 5,
North Carolina 11, Texas 4), but the vacant seats don’t affect the state majorities. So, if it goes to the House, we have 4 more
years of Trump.
So, to put
it briefly, Trump doesn’t need to get 270 electoral votes to get a second term.
All he needs to do is keep Biden from getting 270 certified electoral votes.
I'm not a constitutional lawyer, so if I'm wrong about this, please let me know in the comments.
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